Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 275.5 (-115) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 298.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies an impressive progression in his passing talent over last season’s 253.0 mark.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant growth in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 64.0% rate.
Tua Tagovailoa comes in as one of the most effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 8.74 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 97th percentile.
This year, the feeble Raiders defense has conceded a monstrous 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Cons

This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards