Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 275.5 (-115) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 298.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies an impressive progression in his passing talent over last season’s 253.0 mark.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant growth in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 64.0% rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa comes in as one of the most effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 8.74 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 97th percentile.
- This year, the feeble Raiders defense has conceded a monstrous 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards
276
Passing Yards
