Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-136/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 274.5 (+105) after it opened @ 280.5 (-114).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to throw 39.4 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Patrick Mahomes comes in as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with an impressive 68.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 79th percentile.

Cons

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (278.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Patrick Mahomes’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a mere 7.49 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last year.
This year, the strong Eagles defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a measly 3.8 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards