Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 225.5 (-110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.
- Lamar Jackson’s 216.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a noteable growth in his passing ability over last season’s 191.0 mark.
- This year, the shaky Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a massive 265.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-most in the league.
Cons
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to call only 62.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
- In this game, Lamar Jackson is projected by the projection model to total the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.7.
Projection
THE BLITZ
225
Passing Yards
225
Passing Yards
