Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Packers vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 253.5 (-115) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (64.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chargers are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- The projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 37.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
- With a stellar record of 262.0 adjusted passing yards per game (78th percentile), Justin Herbert places as one of the best QBs in the league this year.
- When it comes to defensive tackles rushing the passer, Green Bay’s unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
- Opposing QBs teams have been wary to pass too much against the Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- This year, the tough Green Bay Packers defense has given up a meager 206.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 6th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
