Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 205.5 (-120).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Fields has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (198.0) this year than he did last year (149.0).
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Detroit’s unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Justin Fields is expected by the model to average the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.9.
The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the league vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards