Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 205.5 (-120).
Pros
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Justin Fields has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (198.0) this year than he did last year (149.0).
- When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Detroit’s unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Justin Fields is expected by the model to average the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.9.
- The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the league vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards
224
Passing Yards
