Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 241.5 (-115) after it opened @ 254.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
- In logging a colossal 36.6 pass attempts per game this year, Josh Allen ranks among the top QBs in football (76th percentile) in this respect.
- In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
- Josh Allen is positioned as one of the best passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 272.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
- Josh Allen’s 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a noteable progression in his passing precision over last year’s 64.2% rate.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 125.7 total plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
- The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Bills this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
- Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.9 per game) this year.
- This year, the imposing Jets defense has conceded a meager 181.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
232
Passing Yards
232
Passing Yards
