Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-141/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (+108) after it opened @ 250.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
- Brock Purdy’s 262.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a significant boost in his throwing talent over last season’s 151.0 mark.
- Brock Purdy’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.4% to 69.9%.
- Brock Purdy’s 9.43 adjusted yards-per-target this season shows a remarkable improvement in his passing efficiency over last season’s 8.0% mark.
- This year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a colossal 269.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
