Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-141/+108).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (+108) after it opened @ 250.5 (-113).

Pros

The Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy’s 262.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a significant boost in his throwing talent over last season’s 151.0 mark.
Brock Purdy’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.4% to 69.9%.
Brock Purdy’s 9.43 adjusted yards-per-target this season shows a remarkable improvement in his passing efficiency over last season’s 8.0% mark.
This year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a colossal 269.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards