Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-115) after it opened @ 232.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week’s contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
Baker Mayfield has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (228.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is expected by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.0.
This year, the strong 49ers defense has conceded the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a paltry 6.8 yards.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards