Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 200.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a big -14-point underdog in this game.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The model projects the Raiders to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.1% pass rate.
- The model projects the Raiders to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
- When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami’s collection of safeties has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards
221
Passing Yards
