Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Packers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (+100).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Najee Harris is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 77th percentile among running backs with 14.1 rush attempts.
- Out of all running backs, Najee Harris ranks in the 90th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 57.5% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (128 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
Cons
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Najee Harris’s 45.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a material diminishment in his rushing skills over last year’s 59.0 rate.
- Najee Harris’s rushing efficiency (3.60 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (24th percentile when it comes to RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
