Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Saints
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 42.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to garner 15.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Steelers rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.6% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be much less involved in his team’s run game this week (52.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (65.2% in games he has played).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
- Najee Harris has run for significantly fewer yards per game (43.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
- Najee Harris’s ground effectiveness (3.20 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (2nd percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
