Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
100
Rushing Yards
100
Rushing Yards
