Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Colts
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-114/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-114) after it opened @ 73.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 17.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.70 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.37 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
