Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-120).

Pros

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 16.9 carries in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Joe Mixon has been a more important option in his offense’s ground game this year (80.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (68.6%).
With a fantastic tally of 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (88th percentile), Joe Mixon has been as one of the best RBs in the league this year.
The Houston Texans defensive tackles rank as the worst group of DTs in football this year with their run defense.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Bengals as the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
When it comes to blocking for rushers (and the significance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in the league last year.
The Texans defense has had the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 3.50 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards