Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cardinals vs. Falcons
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the 6th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.6% run rate.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
- James Conner’s 61.3% Snap% this year reflects a substantial reduction in his offensive utilization over last year’s 79.5% mark.
- With an outstanding record of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (93rd percentile), James Conner ranks as one of the best running backs in the NFL this year.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Cardinals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Atlanta’s DT corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
