College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cardinals vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are projected by the predictive model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Atlanta Falcons this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to garner 5.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
- In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
- After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has regressed heavily this year, now pacing 65.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Kyle Pitts has been used much less in his offense’s air attack.
- Kyle Pitts’s ability to pick up extra yardage has worsened this season, notching a mere 2.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.61 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
