Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).

O/U 35.5
-115/-115

O/U 36.5
-110/-110

O/U 35.5
-119/-115

O/U 35.5
-120/-110

Pros

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are projected by the predictive model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Atlanta Falcons this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to garner 5.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has regressed heavily this year, now pacing 65.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Kyle Pitts has been used much less in his offense’s air attack.
Kyle Pitts’s ability to pick up extra yardage has worsened this season, notching a mere 2.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.61 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards