Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Packers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-118) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Cowboys have been the 6th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 43.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to accrue 12.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-most yards in the league (143 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a less important option in his team’s rushing attack this week (42.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.5% in games he has played).
- Ezekiel Elliott’s ground efficiency (4.06 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (22nd percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
