Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 13.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in football (154 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (33.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
- David Montgomery has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
- David Montgomery’s ground effectiveness (3.53 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (10th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
