Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
49ers vs. Chargers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-130) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 45.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 19.7 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has grinded out 64.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (85th percentile).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 6.01 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
