NFL

Bets

November 9, 2023

Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-143).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

With regard to a defense’s effect on pace, at 27.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
In this week’s game, Brian Robinson is expected by the projections to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 14.1 carries.
Brian Robinson has received 61.1% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year with their run defense.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders offensive approach to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
This week’s spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 35.5% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The Commanders O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
Brian Robinson has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards