Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bengals vs. Texans
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 272.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 272.5 (-110) after it opened @ 278.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The model projects Joe Burrow to attempt 39.7 passes in this contest, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.
- This year, the porous Texans defense has been torched for a massive 258.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in the league.
- This year, the weak Houston Texans defense has allowed a colossal 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-largest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- At the moment, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
- Joe Burrow has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (248.0) this year than he did last year (289.0).
- Joe Burrow’s passing precision has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 66.1%.
- Joe Burrow’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, totaling just 6.43 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.63 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
282
Passing Yards
282
Passing Yards
