Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chargers vs. Lions
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-109) after it opened @ 48.5 (-117).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- Austin Ekeler has received 53.8% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Austin Ekeler has averaged 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (81st percentile).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- In regards to run support (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
- Austin Ekeler’s running efficiency has diminished this year, compiling just 3.70 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 figure last year.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 74.0 per game) against the Lions defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
