Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
49ers vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-115) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
- Austin Ekeler has garnered 58.3% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Austin Ekeler has generated 53.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (78th percentile).
- The Los Angeles Chargers have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Chargers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 32.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has produced the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 3.58 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
