Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 19.8 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 59.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Alvin Kamara has been among the weakest running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 7th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards