NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 19.8 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has been given 59.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Alvin Kamara has been among the weakest running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 7th percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
