Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Packers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-139) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 12.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
- Aaron Jones has earned 50.5% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Aaron Jones has run for substantially more yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (132 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
Cons
- The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
