Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-139) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to earn 12.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has earned 50.5% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has run for substantially more yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (132 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

Cons

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards