Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup quarterback Colt McCoy in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential target this year (88.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (73.2%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Zach Ertz has been among the least efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a measly 6.01 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
Zach Ertz has been among the worst tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 21st percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) to tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards