Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It is football Sunday, but there is still value to be found in the NBA prop market.
Using the tools on FTN Bets, we are able to find guys with great matchups who are not getting the respect they deserve. For the rest of my picks, be sure to check out FTN’s NBA Bet Tracker on FTN Bets.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet
Jalen Brunson Over 18.5 Points
Jalen Brunson is off to a really hot start this November. He’s now scored 20+ points in five of the last six games. Brunson is becoming a steady force for the Knicks who can get a bucket when a bucket is needed. The matchup is an interesting one. On paper, OKC’s defense should be exploitable, but they are actually top 10 in defensive efficiency. That being said, their defense against point guards has been average at best, culminating with Jevon Carter dropping 36 on them this week.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 Points
SGA failed to hit this in the last game due to the blowout, but he’s in a fantastic spot against the Knicks today. The Knicks are a mess defensively right now, which should allow SGA to feast all afternoon. Using FTN’s Advanced DVP, you can see the Knicks struggle against guys like Shai, ranking 23rd versus scorers and 27th versus superstars. SGA is averaging more than 30 PPG so far this season and has gone over 27.5 in eight of 11 games so far.
Best NBA Longshot prop bet
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 2.5 3-Pointers
KCP over 2.5 threes is one of my favorite things to bet on this season. It has consistently been a plus-money bet, despite him averaging 2.7 made threes per game. He’s gone over this line in seven of 11 games so far this year, so you really wouldn’t expect such good odds. The argument against KCP is that his shooting percentage is unsustainable, as he’s hitting more than 50% of his 3s. However, in this offense, KCP gets such wide-open looks that the shooting really can continue. KCP gets an additional security boost with Bones Hyland ruled out. KCP has 3+ 3-pointers in all three games he’s played without Bones this season.
