Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Trey McBride from EV Insight

Trey McBrideReceiving Yards

Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-115) after it opened @ 40.5 (-120).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week’s contest, Trey McBride is anticipated by the projections to rank in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.3 targets.
The leading projections forecast Trey McBride to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing offense this week (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.5% in games he has played).
Trey McBride profiles as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an exceptional 32.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the moment, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
This year, the tough Falcons defense has yielded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.6 yards.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.20 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards