Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trey McBrideReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cardinals vs. Falcons
Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-115) after it opened @ 40.5 (-120).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- In this week’s contest, Trey McBride is anticipated by the projections to rank in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.3 targets.
- The leading projections forecast Trey McBride to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing offense this week (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.5% in games he has played).
- Trey McBride profiles as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an exceptional 32.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- At the moment, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
- This year, the tough Falcons defense has yielded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.6 yards.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.20 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
