Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-120) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Noah Fant’s ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, averaging 7.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 4.10 mark last year.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
- Noah Fant has been a much smaller piece of his team’s pass game this season (12.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
- Noah Fant has posted far fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 39.0) vs. TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
