Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- The Commanders defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.8 per game) this year.
- Noah Fant’s receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 78.4% to 81.5%.
- Noah Fant’s 11.8 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 7.6 mark.
Cons
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
- The 5th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 53.8 per game on average).
- Noah Fant has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (25.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Noah Fant has been featured much less in his team’s pass game.
- The Commanders defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 38.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards
18
Receiving Yards
