NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cowboys vs. Giants
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-117) after it opened @ 14.5 (-109).
Pros
- An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Giants being a massive -17.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The predictive model expects the Giants as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- To the extent of a defense’s influence on pace, at 27.58 seconds per play, the projections expect the New York Giants as the 8th-fastest in the league (in a neutral context) right now.
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
- The predictive model expects Daniel Bellinger to earn 4.4 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
- After accruing 12.0 air yards per game last season, Daniel Bellinger has posted significant losses this season, now averaging 4.0 per game.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Daniel Bellinger’s 10.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year represents an impressive decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 27.0 mark.
- Daniel Bellinger’s 87.5% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a noteable regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 91.2% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
