Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-117) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 97.7% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the NFL (75.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (75.8%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.70 seconds per play.
- Michael Pittman has put up quite a few less air yards this year (63.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Michael Pittman’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, notching a measly 7.66 yards-per-target compared to a 8.68 rate last season.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.09 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
