Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chargers vs. Lions
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- With a sizeable 96.7% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, Keenan Allen ranks among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.
- Keenan Allen’s 93.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a meaningful growth in his receiving talent over last year’s 80.0 rate.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 2.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
103
Receiving Yards
103
Receiving Yards
