Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cowboys vs. Giants
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- The model projects Jake Ferguson to accrue 5.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- After totaling 4.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has undergone big improvement this season, currently sitting at 31.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Jake Ferguson has been more heavily incorporated in his offense’s passing offense.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a heavy 17.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys as the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.
- Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.
- Jake Ferguson’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 84.5% to 78.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
