Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.
This week, George Kittle is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 87th percentile among tight ends with 5.5 targets.
George Kittle has put up many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, George Kittle has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s pass game.
George Kittle has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (56.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.5 plays per game.
The 49ers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards