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Chris Meaney
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.
- This week, George Kittle is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 87th percentile among tight ends with 5.5 targets.
- George Kittle has put up many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, George Kittle has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s pass game.
- George Kittle has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (56.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 49ers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.5 plays per game.
- The 49ers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
