Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
49ers vs. Chargers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to garner 6.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- George Kittle has been among the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 52.0 yards per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.
- George Kittle’s sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 75.6% to 79.5%.
- George Kittle has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a terrific 8.99 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.7%) to tight ends this year (63.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
