Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
49ers vs. Chargers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a terrific 58.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
- Deebo Samuel’s skills in generating extra yardage have improved this season, notching 11.65 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 8.66 figure last season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.6%).
Cons
- The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- Deebo Samuel has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
