Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Ravens vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-114) after it opened @ 33.5 (-113).
Pros
- This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Browns, who are -6-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Browns to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.81 seconds per snap.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- This week, David Njoku is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 5.9 targets.
- The Cleveland O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 56.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- After totaling 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has regressed heavily this season, currently pacing 18.0 per game.
- David Njoku’s 30.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 42.8.
- David Njoku’s 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 50.0 rate.
- David Njoku’s 7.2 adjusted yards per target this season represents a significant decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 8.9 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
