MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-125) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- With an exceptional 95.3% Route Participation Rate (96th percentile) this year, D.J. Moore places among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
- In this game, D.J. Moore is expected by the projections to position himself in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.1 targets.
- D.J. Moore has posted a monstrous 91.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- D.J. Moore has posted a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
- D.J. Moore’s possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 57.7% to 77.1%.
Cons
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.4 per game) this year.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
