Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (+105/-140).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (+105) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to earn 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Olave has put up a whopping 133.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among WRs.
- Chris Olave’s 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Chris Olave has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing just 60.3% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 20th percentile among wide receivers
- Chris Olave has been among the weakest wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.6%) versus wide receivers this year (63.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
