Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 29.5 (-114).

Pros

The Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.2% Target% this year marks a meaningful progression in his passing game volume over last year’s 10.8% figure.
After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last year, Chigoziem Okonkwo has posted big gains this year, now averaging 31.0 per game.

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the Titans to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 67.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 71.9% figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards