Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 29.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
- The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.2% Target% this year marks a meaningful progression in his passing game volume over last year’s 10.8% figure.
- After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last year, Chigoziem Okonkwo has posted big gains this year, now averaging 31.0 per game.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Titans to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.5 plays per game.
- The Tennessee offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 67.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 71.9% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
