Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Titans
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 30.5 (+105).
Pros
- Cade Otton’s 86.0% Route Participation Rate this year represents a noteable boost in his pass game volume over last year’s 63.9% rate.
- Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to accrue 5.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- After totaling 23.0 air yards per game last year, Cade Otton has been rising this year, currently pacing 32.0 per game.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
- Cade Otton’s 71.7% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a remarkable boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 66.2% figure.
Cons
- The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (only 56.8 per game on average).
- With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton has been as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in the league in the open field.
- The Titans defense has given up the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) to TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
