Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 300.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 300.5 (-110) after it opened @ 302.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for many more yards per game (354.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
Opposing teams have passed for the 9th-most yards in football (250.0 per game) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

Cons

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the league against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
318
Passing Yards