NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kyler MurrayPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cardinals vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (+110/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 225.5 (+110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Kyler Murray has attempted 37.5 passes per game last year, ranking in the 86th percentile among QBs.
Cons
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- At the moment, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
- With a feeble 6.12 adjusted yards-per-target (7th percentile) last year, Kyler Murray has been among the worst per-play passers in the league.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 9th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 216.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Falcons defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
