Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kyler Murray

Kyler MurrayPassing Yards

Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (+110/-145).

The public has bet the OVER up to 225.5 (+110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Kyler Murray has attempted 37.5 passes per game last year, ranking in the 86th percentile among QBs.

Cons

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the moment, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
With a feeble 6.12 adjusted yards-per-target (7th percentile) last year, Kyler Murray has been among the worst per-play passers in the league.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 9th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 216.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Falcons defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards