Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
49ers vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 253.5 (-142) after it opened @ 255.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chargers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
- Justin Herbert has been among the top passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 283.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in football.
- Justin Herbert has been among the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging just 6.46 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 212.0 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, surrendering 7.21 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards
262
Passing Yards
