Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 175.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 175.5 (-110) after it opened @ 180.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most yards in football (270.0 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in the league against the Detroit Lions defense this year (73.2%).
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, yielding 8.82 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions cornerbacks project as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Justin Fields has been among the bottom QBs in the NFL this year, averaging 149.0 yards per game while grading out in the 11th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
156
Passing Yards
156
Passing Yards
