NFL

Bets

November 9, 2023

Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The Commanders defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.8 per game) this year.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (263.0 per game) against the Commanders defense this year.
This year, the anemic Commanders defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a massive 8.27 yards.

Cons

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
The 5th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 53.8 per game on average).
Geno Smith’s 229.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a noteworthy drop-off in his throwing talent over last year’s 255.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards